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A recent flurry of progress on pipeline plans and field approvals in East Africa means Kenya is set to become the region’s first oil exporter, beating its land-locked neighbor and regional rival Uganda to the punch.

Under a deal struck with Tullow Oil last month, crude flows from Kenya’s north western Lokichar basin to the port of Lamu on the Indian Ocean could begin by the middle of next year.

Initial trucked volumes will be small but Nairobi hopes a new oil export pipeline will bring much bigger revenue streams from 2021.

To the east, Uganda’s own oil ambitions are finally taking shape after it picked a pipeline route via Tanzania, snubbing the initial favorite Kenya, to bring its own crude to international markets by 2020.

The Uganda pipeline unlocks the development of 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil operated by Tullow, Total, and CNOOC in the Albertine basin and would bring 200,000 b/d of crude to the market.

Kenya’s 750 million barrels of recoverable crude will feed a 100,000 b/d export line to the port of Lamu.

Both targets are seen as optimistic, however, vulnerable to red tape, logistical hurdles and the mutability of regional politics. Energy analysts Wood Mackenzie see crude exports starting in 2022 at the earliest.

Before then, Kenya’s trucked exports are limited to just 2,000 b/d, effectively little more than extended well tests for Tullow and its partners Africa Oil.

Tullow itself remains resolutely upbeat over the economics of full commercial flows from Uganda and Kenya. The explorer believes both developments will enjoy low full cycle costs of around $25/b, which includes pipeline tariffs, helped by highly permeable rocks.

The value of the exports would be also supported by relative good quality crude that Tullow believes would attract potential buyers from Europe and the Far East.

The Ugandan and Kenyan oil finds have much in common. Both hold very low sulfur, intermediate API gravity crude comparable to medium sweet grades such as Indonesia’s Minas, and Angola’s Cabinda crude. Both crudes yield high proportions of fuel oil, gasoil and VGO, some of the most valuable cuts of the barrel.

There is one proverbial fly in the ointment. Both deposits hold waxy, high viscosity crude which remains solid below 40°C and requires a heated, insulated pipeline to flow.

The drawback raises the logistical headache of heating stations along the pipeline routes, r...