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Skimming along the surface of Japan’s crude import numbers gives an impression that the pendulum has swung back in favor of Middle Eastern crudes.

But a deeper dive into the data tells a more subtle story—that Japan has become more flexible its crude buying. Because of the length in crude markets, Japanese buyers are finding it possible to take additional contract volumes or negotiate with term suppliers for additional supply. In addition, they are buying arbitrage spot cargoes from outside the region.

Before shale production took off in the US, Japan was more focused on the stability of supply and maintaining relationships with suppliers rather than optimizing the economics of their refining sector.

Now refiners’ linear program models are showing to buy Dubai-linked crudes, supporting increased imports from the Middle East.

Japan’s Mideast crude imports shot up in recent months as the country’s Iranian imports recovered to a pre-sanction level of 307,691 b/d in May and remained close to 300,000 b/d in June.

This followed imports from Saudi Arabia, which surged to a 10-year high of 1.42 million b/d in April.

The increase in Iranian crude imports raised the overall Mideast share of Japan’s crude imports to an average of 86.7% over January-June, up from 82.2% from a year ago, according to S&P Global Platts calculations based on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry data.

Indeed the greater Mideast market share provides a sharp contrast from last year when Middle Eastern crudes were 81.8% of Japan’s crude import basket. That was down slightly from 83% in 2014 as the country stepped up buying arbitrage cargoes from across the globe, including from Mexico and Kazakhstan, while becoming more selective about their procurements within the Middle East.

The increased crude imports from the Middle East this year are also supported by a pricing trend. The second-month Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps averaged $3.33/b through the first six months of this year, compared to $1.71/b through 2015, according to Platts data.

A wider EFS leads to Brent related crudes being less competitive compared to Dubai related crudes.

The greater Mideast imports meant a slashing of Russian imports as local refiners have passed up their previously favorite ESPO crude. Russian crude supplies to Japan dropped 27.9% year on year to 216,084 b/d in the six months to June 30.

Japan’s appetite ...