Zero wedge: Shrinking margins and increased regulation leaves ‘restrained optimism’ for gold

Another year, another London Bullion Market Association conference, and this year was full of what HSBC senior analyst James Steel described as “restrained optimism.” A similar description was given of the recent Denver Gold conference in Colorado Springs, where one fund manager summed the mood up as “veiled optimism.” But this didn’t stop an air of positivity buzzing on the sidelines of both events, with the mood jubilant, especially in Singapore this week. At least at face value.

Regulation continued to weigh heavy on an industry with ever decreasing margins. As Stuart Murray, non-exec chairman at Sylvania Platinum, bluntly put it: “regulation is killing capitalism.”

There was a flurry of news out of the event, mainly linked to the ongoing reformation of the London over-the-counter market.

Things certainly seem to be heating up with the three exchanges currently managing the LBMA prices: the London Metal Exchange, ICE and CME Group.

ICE appeared pretty happy with their announcement that they will be centrally clearing the LBMA Gold Price starting in early 2017, backed by a new futures contract.

This appeared to be going in direct competition with the LME’s project, LMEprecious, aimed at driving more business on to an exchange, but allowing for continuity with the OTC market.

CME stayed quiet on the announcement, although many in the know said that they expected the group, which offers the world’s number one gold futures contract on COMEX, to launch some gold-related products in the near future.

“Let’s not forget with all the buzz around London, CME still operate the number one gold futures contract in the world,” said one senior source.

A second source backed this up saying, “COMEX is the go to for liquidity and depth.”

In a bid to increase participation of the LBMA Gold Price, administrator ICE Benchmark Administration said that it will be introducing central clearing of the price discovery mechanism in March 2017, backed by a loco London futures contract.

Reaction to the news was somewhat mixed at the LBMA conference, with some seeing the move as way to skirt UK regulation.

In response, LBMA general counsel Sakhila Mirza said that wasn’t the case and that the new system is a means to increase participation for users with less access to credit.

A source said that he thinks it’s...