The way US E&P operators are adding rigs, planning activity ramp-ups, preparing to raise capex and looking forward to renewed production growth in 2017, you’d be tempted to write finis to a harrowing two-year industry downturn.

During third-quarter 2016 earnings calls in the last few weeks, oil operator after operator unveiled what became surprisingly repetitive near-term plans: stirring the production pot by slipping a rig or two into the field during the final months of this year, kicking up the capital budget modestly and then returning to production growth in 2017.

“Third quarter results tell the story of good, old fashioned American ingenuity,” Robert W. Baird analyst Ethan Bellamy told S&P Global Platts. “Costs are down, productivity is up, and capital is flowing into the most productive regions.”

CEOs certainly displayed sunnier dispositions on conference calls than a couple of quarters ago when the specter of what then was a recent period of $30/b oil was fresh in their minds.

But now, with a new year looming, oil executives seemed energized by their victory over a low-priced oil world after two years of squeezing costs and efficiencies from oil fields and developing precise completion designs to extract still more oil and gas per well. So they appeared willing to open the purse strings a bit next year—and if oil prices cooperated, rev up the drilling machine and production spigot in the months to come.

But beneath their show of confidence, oil executives appeared mindful of the sobering and ongoing volatility of oil prices. Most clearly conveyed that any stepped-up activity would be done prudently until price signals indicated otherwise. Larger operators in particular said higher prices of mid-$50s/b to $60/b were needed for next-stage growth.

Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research for Standard Chartered Bank, noted industry still is not investing according to the oil price curve. Front-month WTI closed Friday at $45.69/b, while forward prices in June and December 2017 settled at $49.49/b, and $50.60/b, respectively.

“On average, they are maybe planning on the basis of the curve minus at least $5” per barrel, Horsnell said. “So, not overly aggressive.”

But even as the outlook for 2017 turns up, independent E&Ps as a group showed financial losses from July to September for the eighth straight quarter, he said.

Despite losses, rig count growing

While...