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On the same day the Obama administration finalized methane regulations on new and modified oil and gas infrastructure, a new National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) study was released illustrating one of the reasons the rules have been highly criticized.

The study finds methane emissions from the Bakken region are lower than previously believed. And not only are they significantly lower than a 2014 satellite study  that anti-fracking activists touted, they are also far lower than previous EPA estimates, according to the researchers’ own assessment and EID research.

From the NOAA press release on the study:

“The Bakken oil and gas field is leaking a lot of methane, but less than some satellites report, and less than the latest Environmental Protection Agency inventory for petroleum systems, according to the researchers’ calculations.”

The researchers claimed that their data were only “slightly lower” than EPA’s but the researchers appear to be making that statement using 2013 EPA methane emission estimates, which were the latest available at the time the study was conducted. But the EPA has since release drastically upwardly-revised methane emissions data for 2014 – and when that latest data are used, the EPA’s overestimation is more pronounced: EPA’s latest estimates are 1.625 mmt CO2 eq. more than the NOAA study.

The math works like this: The study finds that annual methane emissions in the Bakken are 275,000 tons, which equates to 6.875 million metric tons CO2 equivalent. The researchers calculated the Bakken’s share of the 2013 nationwide inventory data based on the percentage of national production from the Bakken (12.5 percent in 2014), finding their emission estimate was lower than EPA’s.

EPA only reports petroleum system emissions at the national level. The EPA is now claiming methane emissions for petroleum systems were 68.1 mmt CO2 eq. in 2014. Assuming for a moment the latter figure is correct, one can apply the researchers’ proportional calculations (12...