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Helping Russia target the jihadist group will only benefit the Assad regime unless Washington ensures that such efforts are carefully targeted, strictly conditioned, and accompanied by additional reinforcement of the moderate opposition.

The Obama administration is reportedly considering a deal with Russia to coordinate an expanded bombing campaign against al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) in Syria. In exchange, Moscow would pressure Bashar al-Assad’s regime to stop bombing other rebel militias that the United States does not consider terrorist groups. According to a June 30 Washington Post report, the U.S. military would not provide Russian forces with “the exact locations of these groups,” but it would “specify geographic zones that would be safe from the Assad regime’s aerial assaults.”

Any such agreement could help roll back JN’s recent growth in northwest Syria, spurred by repeated regime violations of the “cessation of hostilities” agreement brokered by Washington and Moscow. But the challenge lies in reducing the grave risk of Assad becoming the primary beneficiary of joint strikes against JN. Avoiding that scenario means crafting an agreement whose geographic scope and precision will ensure a positive impact on Western-supported moderate rebels. Three issues require particularly careful consideration:

1. Where the strikes occur. Jabhat al-Nusra is hostile toward the more moderate rebel groups and communities supported by the United States and its Western allies. If joint U.S.-Russian strikes against JN occur in areas where the group is in conflict with other antiregime forces but the regime is not present, then such targeting could help those antiregime forces while doing nothing to help Assad. Yet the consequences would be very different if the strikes occur in areas where JN is attacking the regime in tacit cooperation with other groups; such strikes would benefit the regime and harm the prospects of the non-jihadist opposition.
2. The extent to which cooperation is contingent on Russia not hitting groups other than the Islamic State and JN. Russia seeks to apply terrorist designations to rebel militias such as Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham — Salafist groups whose views are not exactly in line with America’s, but whom Washington has tacitly avoided proscribing or targeting due to their utility in fighting Assad. Since Moscow wants the political symb...
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