Colombia’s peace deal could spur oil sector turnaround: Fuel for Thought
Monday July 4, 2016
Is a peace dividend in the form of more investment–and ultimately more production and jobs–coming to Colombia’s beleaguered oil and gas sector? That’s been the hope of executives and analysts since the government signed a permanent cease fire on June 23 with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, the country’s largest rebel group. If a comprehensive peace deal is signed later this summer as expected, the warring sides could end 52 years of armed aggression. An end to hostilities, assuming one takes hold in the mostly rural areas where oil is pumped, would be welcome news for E&P and oil field services firms. Their employees have been regular victims over the decades of FARC kidnappings, bombings, extortion and murders. From 2001 through 2015, Colombian national police reported 219 oil company employees were kidnapped for ransom by FARC guerrillas and other groups, according to figures compiled by Agora Consultorias, a risk analysis firm in Bogota. Oil firms have paid untold millions in extortion payments to armed groups as well. Over that same 15-year period, there were 1,814 reported bombings of Colombian pipelines, the vast majority by suspected FARC rebels. According to El Tiempo newspaper, as many as 4.1 million barrels of oil have been lost to the bombings since the mid-1980s, or more than twice the oil spilled by the Exxon Valdez after it ran aground in Alaska in 1989. Naturally, those statistics have had a chilling effect on Colombia’s oil patch, especially in recent years as lower global prices have made the Andean country a tougher sell to oil companies’ investment committees. Added to the country’s challenging logistics and higher lifting costs associated with heavy oil, security issues have driven many companies to more inviting conditions in Mexico, Peru and Argentina. Three years of investment declines are coming home to roost, contributing to a precipitous decline in Colombia’s crude output this year. After averaging 1,005,000 b/d in 2015, Colombia pumped only 904,000 b/d in May, down a shocking 11.8% from what was pumped in the year-ago month. Adding to the gloom is that Colombia’s proven oil reserves took a major hit last year, falling to 2 billion barrels as of December 31, down from 2.308 billion barrels at the end of 2014, a 13% decline. The drop follows a 5.6% decline reported at the end of 2014. Others step in where FAR C left President Juan Manuel Santos insists the im...