Coal Is No Longer King In China

New data suggests China has tipped past peak coal.

Electricity generation from coal-fired power plants in China dropped by an estimated 4 percent in 2015, according to new government data reported by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

More significantly, year-over-year thermal power capacity utilization fell from about 54 percent in 2014 to 49.4 percent in 2015, the first time thermal power capacity was not the majority of electricity generation.

The new data comes after questions last year as to whether coal consumption was falling as fast as some thought in China, given conflicting data.

One of the major reasons for the slump in coal consumption was the sluggish Chinese economy, which had its slowest growth rate in overall electricity demand since 1998. The Chinese government also reported this week the slowest economic growth rate in 25 years, a trend that is expected to continue.

Cuts to coal imports in China were even more severe than the consumption rate, according to IEEFA, down more than 30 percent from 2014.

This telling import data confirms the last flicker of hope has been snuffed out, not least for Australia's Galilee Basin,†Tim Buckley, director of energy finance studies for Australasia at IEEFA, wrote in his analysis. It also carries massive negative implications for Indonesia's coal export market, given the concurrent collapse in Indian demand,†he said.

Besides the slow economy, another key to China's energy mix is the contraction of its heavy industry, which burns nearly one-quarter of all coal used in the country. IEEFA reported electricity use by heavy industry fell nearly 2 percent during 2015, while the service sector’s electricity consumption grew by more than 7 percent. In 2013, the service sector in China overtook the industrial sector for the first time, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.