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Commodities are also getting whipsawed around by currency moves. As the US dollar continues to weaken due to growing pessimism about the US economy, crude is finding some support. After a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi earlier today lifted the euro to a three-month high, another round of poor data out of the US is putting further downward pressure on the dollar.

Weekly jobless claims came in worse than expected, at 285k versus 280k expected, while preliminary US productivity data was also below par (i.e., not in good way like in golf). Weaker jobless claims are stoking concerns ahead of Nonfarm Friday tomorrow, and the official monthly unemployment report.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, some parts of the Eagle Ford and Permian Basins in Texas remain profitable at current price levels. The biggest producing areas in Texas are also the lowest-cost counties: DeWitt, Midland, Martin and Reeves have a combined output of 430,000 barrels per day.

So while wells in the higher-cost counties such as Dimmitt have dropped precipitously, drilling activity has increased in the lower cost ones, such as DeWitt rising 77% from Q1 last year to Q3. Yet even in DeWitt, costs vary wildly: ~45% of wells drilled in 2014 would have been profitable with oil prices below $20, while 5% needed a price of over $70.

This latest study from the EIA is a great overview of US fuel consumption on the East and Gulf coasts. The East Coast (aka, PADD1) consumed 3.13 million barrels of gasoline in 2014, which is 35% of total US demand. The Gulf Coast (aka, PADD3) consumed about half that ...