Analysis of OPEC Production Cuts [Video]
Tuesday December 20, 2016
OPEC production is primarily from conventional reservoirs. These reservoirs require reservoir pressure management. Some have suggested that Saudi Arabia’s rationale for cutting production was to reverse reservoir damage that overproduction has/may have caused. Preservation of reservoir integrity may ultimately limit “immediate” upwards adds to inventory from OPEC.
The temptation to cheat on quotas undoubtedly rises as prices rise, but this will occur in a universe populated by mostly long established fields for which pressure drawdowns due to years of production have left reservoirs in a delicate balance. So it’s quite possible that even if cheating IS encouraged by member nations, long term damage to ultimate cash flow may occur if the cheating barrels are sourced from mature fields.
Source: FundamentalEdge
The geopolitical landscape is absolutely teeming with heightened tensions and potential black swan events.
Inquiries into Russia’s hacking activities, possible re-imposition of Iran sanctions, the increasingly desperate Venezuelan situation, China’s seizure of a US Navy drone and desired control of shipping lanes in the South China sea—not to mention the destabilizing end game in Syria—are likely flash points that could easily escalate into violence that could greatly hamper the ability of OPEC oil to get to market. It’s a good bet that supply interruption, rather than global demand strength is a more likely foundation for future price variability in crude.
If reservoir damage worries are a fact of life for many OPEC producers, US unconventional producers may ultimately be the long term winners in a universe of rising prices (assuming that OPEC acts rationally for long term gain, rather than to staunch short term cash flow problems.
Thoughts? Comment below.
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Can Mexican reform boost the price of natural gas?11 January 2017
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Will the steel market bears bite back in 2017?11 January 2017
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Non-OPEC producers say they are trimming output10 January 2017
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- Five Things to Know about #ExxonKnew #FakeNews Ahead of Tillerson’s Confirmation Hearing - 10th January 2017
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- New Reliant Energy plan lets Texas customers support solar energy, without the panels - 24th October 2016
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- Shell among new LNG sellers for Asia hub contender Singapore - 24th October 2016
- Would the US ever attend an OPEC meeting? – Fuel for Thought - 23rd October 2016
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- New Science Confirms that Oilfield Produced Water is Safe for Irrigation, Refuting Activist Claims (Again) - 21st October 2016
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- Market Currents: Seasonal maintenance means lower oil imports - 21st October 2016
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- New York And The Standby Tariff: A Breakthrough For Clean, Distributed Energy - 14th October 2016
- Colorado Senator Bennet Latest Democrat to Say “No” to Local Fracking Bans - 13th October 2016
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- American steel cameos in US presidential candidate debate - 11th October 2016
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- January
- EIA: Natural gas prices could rise as production finally slows - 25th January 2016
- Energy News Roundup: SCOTUS Uphold Energy Efficiency Law, Exxon’s Bold Forecast & Risk Of Pipeline To Tribal Groups - 25th January 2016
- Coal Is No Longer King In China - 25th January 2016
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- Pennsylvania Announces Plan For Strongest Methane Rules In The Nation - 22nd January 2016
- US ethanol seems to resist the siren song of low gasoline prices - 21st January 2016
- Energy Department Announces $58 Million To Advance Fuel-Efficient Vehicle Technologies - 21st January 2016
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- Energy News Roundup: Navy Launches Biofuel Voyage, Exxon Charges & Devon Announces Layoffs - 21st January 2016
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- West Virginia’s Marcellus Shale Production “Remarkable” - 18th January 2016
- The Science on Fracking in California - 15th January 2016
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- December
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- December
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- November
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- October
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- September
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