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With a formal impeachment of Brazil’s former president Dilma Rousseff of the Workers’ Party (PT) now expected at the end of August, talk has resurfaced of a change of command at Brazilian iron ore miner Vale.

Vale, with a wide Brazilian and international shareholder base, has been classed as a “privatized” company since 1997, but its state-owned shareholders still hold a majority in Vale’s controlling shareholders’ group Valepar, and the government’s “golden share” gives it power in strategic decision-making.

Political influences from the now discredited PT are said to have been behind the sudden exit of former Vale CEO Roger Agnelli in 2011 and his replacement with Murilo Ferreira, a former Vale aluminum area director. The switch occurred well before Agnelli’s contract ended, but coincided with the start of Rousseff’s presidency.

Informed steel and iron ore market sources tell S&P Global Platts that Brazil’s changing political scenario may lead to Ferreira’s exit as CEO before his contract finishes in April 2017. Ferreira, who has managed to stabilize Vale’s financial results following 2015’s iron ore price plunge, is seen as able and agile but some say he is a little too close to Rousseff for the comfort of what is set to be Brazil’s new political establishment. The PT, under Rousseff and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been found in recent investigations to have corruptedly awarded state contracts to large companies in return for donations to support the party, a practice now outlawed.

There is no suggestion that these practices have occurred at Vale. However, the interim government of Michel Temer of the democratic movement PMDB party, to be confirmed as the country’s president if Rousseff is impeached, “is already imposing new rules on companies, trade and associations,” said one metals sector analyst. “The changes are seen as positive for the economy. The government has carried out a spring-clean at companies like Petrobras, Caixa Economica (a state-owned bank) and Banco do Brasil.”

The question is whether Vale can escape the wave of change. And whether a change could be pejorative for the company’s image, suggesting that the company may still be prone to political interference.

“An unnecessary management change at Vale could penalize investors on the pe...