Uranium industry focuses on costs as supply glut continues
Friday April 29, 2016
Uranium miners and traders are suffering from oversupply, low prices, lack of liquidity and low demand from utilities, and have little to no expectation of improving market conditions in the short- to medium-term, uranium market participants said during the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle conference. The conference was in Abu Dhabi early April. Since December 31, uranium prices have dropped by close to 20%, reaching a low of $25.50/lb April 15, the lowest daily spot price reported by the company since 2005, according to TradeTech data. Nick Carter, executive vice president, uranium with price reporting company Ux Consulting, said in a conference presentation that the spot uranium price could stay in the low $30s/lb “for quite some time” because of an excess near-term supply of about 25 million to 30 million lb U3O8 from 2016 to 2019. Carter does not see a supply deficit in the market until “the late 2020s” due to the current supply glut. Further complicating the supply picture, uranium enrichment companies are using their extra enrichment capacity to bring an estimated 15 million lb U3O8 equivalent to the market annually by driving down their operational tails assay, according to Ruthanne Neely, UxC senior vice president of enrichment and general counsel. When enrichers are in overcapacity, they can “underfeed” — that is, use less uranium for the same resulting enriched uranium product — and sell the excess uranium back into the market. Neely estimated that there is “over 60 million SWU in excess inventories” in the form of EUP that can be sold on the market. There is so much EUP material that finding storage space is difficult, she said. Given current requirements, she said the inventory would only be drawn down by 2028. “It’s going to be around for a while,” Neely said. On the sidelines of the conference, where spot and term uranium transactions are often negotiated, the mood of uranium producers and traders was pessimistic. “There is no demand anywhere. Even in China. There is just too much material,” said one uranium trader. “Everyone is just trying to survive,” he said. The trader said that Cameco’s trading arm, Nukem, had been forced to lay off 15 of its 70-member staff. ‘Absolutely no liquidity’ One uranium producer said that there was “absolutely no liquidity in the market.” The low prices, below $30/lb, have meant that producers are refusing to conclude term contracts and prefer to wait for an upturn. How...