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The Turkish long steel supply chain has been reminiscent of one of the more brutal ‘hors catégorie’ Tour de France climbs of late — a surprisingly fast ascent up an alarmingly steep mountainside. Onlookers can’t quite believe the magnitude of the rise and participants are hanging on for dear life, because once you get dropped it’s a rapid backslide. Prices of Turkish premium heavy melting scrap I/II (80:20) imports have risen over $100/mt since the start of February, from $177/mt CFR on February 1 to $291/mt CFR April 21, according to Platts market data. Over the same period Black Sea billet export prices have gained over $150/mt, from $243/mt FOB on February 1 to $400/mt FOB April 21. Such cost rises look almost unthinkable, particularly in a global steel market where the mainstream media’s discourse has focused largely on bad news — problems in the UK amid a whopping and growing global overcapacity being addressed by the OECD, for example. But the hefty cost increases are being passed off in mills’ product prices; Platts benchmark FOB Turkey rebar assessment has risen from $320.50/mt on February 1 to $478/mt April 21. Initially higher export offers gained little traction, and mills were supported by the strong domestic activity — domestic activity continues to be good, and large mills are still looking to pass off further cost increases to home buyers. A lack of competitive alternatives globally has undoubtedly led to these overseas offers being more widely accepted by buyers in the Middle East and US. China is still present in the export markets, but its offers have moved up at breakneck speed on brisk domestic demand, and undoubtedly a good degree of speculative buying by traders. While the China Iron & Steel Association is warning rising output — with March production in China up — could curtail the gains, most participants appear more bullish. Stocks are low and the weather is warm, aiding construction and infrastructure spending, they suggest. The now renowned flower show in Tangshan is undoubtedly filtering into more bullish sentiment, with the potential for supply curbs propping up prices. Some mills are making as much as Yuan 600-800/mt on their crude steel production, according to sources. At the same time Beijing is pushing hard to achieve its gross domestic product for the year, with some thinking it could announce stimulus measures that may further boost the steel market. What does the precipitous climb in ...